Contrarian AI
The value of challenging popular opinion
The word “contrarian” has circulated ad nauseam in the startup world. But to truly be contrarian is not easy, because for most people it requires overcoming a natural inclination towards conformity. That tendency is likely rooted in a survival instinct to avoid expulsion from the tribe, which would have all but guaranteed one’s demise in pre-civilized times.
To question or oppose the conventions of a group can lead to a wide range of reactions. Non-conformists are often disregarded as eccentrics, but sometimes they are treated as a threat to the established ways of thinking.
Not that long ago, in 1633, Galileo was accused of heresy and sentenced to house arrest for the rest of his life because he provided evidence for the now obvious belief that the Earth moves around the sun.
Asking valid questions that violate norms can force an identity crisis among those who don’t wish to rethink or evolve their beliefs. When this happens on a large scale, it can threaten the entire social order.
Unpopular opinions
The famous (perhaps infamous to some) entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel is known to ask startup founders: “What important truth do very few people agree with you on?” He expands on that premise in his book Zero to One:
This question sounds easy because it’s straightforward. Actually, it’s very hard to answer. It’s intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon. And it’s psychologically difficult because anyone trying to answer must say something she knows to be unpopular. Brilliant thinking is rare, but courage is in even shorter supply than genius.
The concept of mimetic theory suggests that individuals are prone to imitating that which they see. It takes courage to resist that intrinsic disposition towards conformity. Such conviction was on display in the following interview with Sam Altman:
When asked about how OpenAI would monetize its business, Altman replied:
Once we build this sort of generally intelligent system, basically we will ask it to figure out a way to generate an investment return for you.
That response was immediately met with laughter from the audience. Altman acknowledged that his answer might sound outlandish, but he stood by that belief. And just three years later it was demonstrated how ChatGPT could do exactly that:
Contrarian thinking
It has always benefited businesses to somehow separate themselves from competitors. This principle is captured in cliches such as “Think Different” and “Zig When Others Zag”. It is easier said than done - and just because an idea is unconventional does not mean that it inherently has credibility.
But the value of contrarian thinking is amplified in a world that grows more and more reliant on AI. Because AI is trained on existing datasets, it will always be limited to some extent by its inputs. Palmer Luckey (founder of Oculus and Anduril) expands on this idea here:
Not only will contrarianism likely rise in value, but AI chatbots will propel people toward more eccentric behavior, as Alexandr Wang (CEO of ScaleAI) suggests:
As AI engines and applications become more mature, the value of conventional thinking may effectively drop to zero. Advanced AI systems are essentially brains at scale. They can be trained on all of humanity’s collective intelligence, as nearly everything is now digitized in some form and can be used as inputs in training data.
The proliferation of AI trained on existing data could place a premium on distinctive perspectives. So it’s worth considering which contrarian views you hold and decisions you make, like trying to launch an original newsletter at a time when generative AI can now write as well as (if not better than) humans. 🙂